Eli Lilly Forecasts $81.5B in 2026 Revenue; Shares Drop 7.8% on Hims Pricing
Eli Lilly’s Q4 sales jumped 43% to $19.3 billion and adjusted EPS rose 42% to $7.54, surpassing expectations. The company forecasts 2026 revenue of $81.5 billion (25% growth) and EPS of $34.25 (41% growth), but shares plunged 7.8% after Hims introduced $49/month semaglutide pills.
1. Q4 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations
In Q4 2025, Eli Lilly posted revenue of $19.3 billion, a 43% year-over-year increase versus the $17.9 billion consensus, and adjusted EPS of $7.54, up 42% versus the $7.48 forecast. Strong demand for injectable tirzepatide drove the outperformance and contributed to a surge in market capitalization past $900 billion.
2. 2026 Guidance Tops Forecasts
Management guided 2026 revenue of $81.5 billion (+25%) and adjusted EPS of $34.25 (+41%), well above analyst forecasts for 19% revenue growth and 36% EPS growth. This robust outlook underscores confidence in continued GLP-1 franchise expansion and potential blockbuster orforglipron launch.
3. Hims Undercuts Oral Semaglutide Pricing
On Feb. 5, Hims announced compounded semaglutide pills at $49 for month one and $99 thereafter, undercutting Lilly’s planned $149-$399 orforglipron prices. The pricing move spurred a 7.8% share sell-off, raising concerns over demand diversion despite compounded prescriptions representing less than 1% of overall GLP-1 volume.