Eli Lilly’s Price Target Rises to $1,325 with $44B Obesity Drug Outlook and $3B China Plan
Wolfe Research raised Eli Lilly’s price target to $1,325, forecasting orforglipron’s peak annual revenue at $44 billion and 67% obesity market share by 2030 under US approval expected by April 10, 2026. Lilly also warned some Medicare plans could exceed $50 monthly for GLP-1 drugs and pledged $3 billion investment in China.
1. Wolfe Research Lifts Target on Oral Obesity Drug
Wolfe Research increased Eli Lilly’s price target to $1,325, citing strong long‐term demand for orforglipron and its potential to generate peak annual revenue of about $44 billion. The analyst forecasts Lilly will hold roughly 67% of the obesity market by 2030 with continued dominance in its $65 billion cardiometabolic portfolio, and expects US regulatory approval by April 10, 2026.
2. Medicare GLP-1 Cap Could Vary Across Plans
Eli Lilly cautioned that while most Medicare plans under the CMS BALANCE initiative will cap GLP-1 drug out-of-pocket costs at $50 per month, cost-sharing provisions could vary in certain basic Medicare Part D plans, potentially leading some beneficiaries to pay higher copayments for weight-loss and diabetes therapies.
3. $3 Billion China Investment for Production Expansion
Lilly plans to invest $3 billion in China over the next decade to expand supply-chain capacity and build manufacturing facilities for type-2 diabetes and obesity treatments, including orforglipron, aiming to support anticipated global demand and accelerate regional production.