Enphase Slashes Q4 Forecast $310M–350M, Triggering 15% Drop and Lawsuit
Enphase Energy cut Q4 revenue guidance to $310M–$350M, missing analysts’ $374.4M–$383M range by up to $73M at midpoint and triggering a 15% share decline. Investors allege Enphase inflated Q3 results by pulling $70.9M of 25D tax-credit revenue into the quarter, leaving organic sales at $339.5M—8.2% below guidance—and misrepresenting channel inventory.
1. Q4 Guidance Revision
On October 28, 2025, Enphase Energy lowered its Q4 2025 revenue guidance to $310M–$350M versus analyst forecasts of $374.4M–$383M, implying a midpoint shortfall of up to $73M. The announcement triggered a 15.15% share decline, reflecting investor concern over demand and execution.
2. Q3 Revenue Pull-Forward Details
The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $410.4M, which included $70.9M of 25D tax-credit revenue pulled from Q4, leaving organic sales at $339.5M—8.24% below the originally guided $330M–$370M range. Management also shifted to destocking channel inventory after previously assuring a balanced supply pipeline.
3. Securities Class Action Allegations
Investors allege Enphase misrepresented its channel inventory health and ability to offset the 25D credit expiration, overstating partner bookings and demand catalysts. The class action seeks to recover losses for those who purchased between April 22 and October 28, 2025, with a lead plaintiff deadline of April 20, 2026.