EQT Delivers $750M Q4 FCF, Tops Estimates by $200M

EQTEQT

EQT delivered $2.5 billion of free cash flow in 2025, with Q4 FCF of $750 million, $200 million above consensus. Management expects near $1 billion February cash flow and aims to reduce net debt below $6 billion post $115 million MVP purchase, with 2026 production guided at 2.275–2.375 Tcfe.

1. Free Cash Flow Outperformance

EQT reported $2.5 billion of free cash flow in 2025, including fourth-quarter FCF of $750 million, $200 million above consensus. This marked the sixth consecutive quarter beating estimates by an average of 40%, driven by marketing optimization and tactical volume curtailments that delivered over $200 million of uplift.

2. Cost Efficiencies and Operational Records

Operating costs and capital spending came in below forecasts due to water infrastructure returns, midstream cost optimization, and upstream efficiency gains. Fourth-quarter records included the fastest quarterly completion pace and highest lateral footage drilled in 24- and 48-hour periods, cutting well costs per foot by 13% year-over-year.

3. Winter Storm Fern Impact and Hedging Strategy

Winter Storm Fern showcased EQT’s integrated upstream, midstream, and marketing platform, with the Mountain Valley Pipeline flowing 6% above its 2 Bcf/day nameplate to support 14 GW of power generation. A record single-day addition of hedges in December and strategic collars set up near $1 billion February cash flow at M2 $7.22/MMBtu.

4. MVP Investment and 2026 Outlook

EQT will invest $115 million to raise MVP Mainline and Boost ownership to 53%, structured at roughly 9x adjusted EBITDA for a 12% IRR. For 2026, the company guides production of 2.275–2.375 Tcfe with $2.07–2.21 billion of maintenance capex and plans to allocate the first $600 million of post-dividend cash flow to selective growth projects.

Sources

FSZWS