EU Illicit Cigarette Market Tops 10.3% with Counterfeits Surging 20%
PM•In 2025, EU illicit cigarette consumption reached 41.8 billion units—or 10.3% of total usage—resulting in €16.7 billion in lost tax revenue and driving overall EU losses to €22.4 billion. Counterfeit sales surged 20% to 18.3 billion units, now comprising 44% of the illicit market.
1. Illicit Market Growth
In 2025, illicit cigarette volumes in the EU climbed to 41.8 billion units—10.3% of total consumption—up over 7% year-on-year and costing governments €16.7 billion in lost excise taxes, with broader European losses reaching €22.4 billion across 38 countries.
2. Shift to Counterfeits
Counterfeit production now dominates the black market, with 18.3 billion fake cigarettes sold—44% of illicit volume—reflecting a 20% increase driven by faster, harder-to-trace supply chains operating closer to end consumers in Western Europe.
3. Country Hotspots
France leads with a 41.4% illicit share (20.5 billion cigarettes), including 9.7 billion counterfeits; Belgium registers nearly 25% share (over 2 billion units) and the Netherlands exceeds 22% (2.1 billion units); the UK records 7 billion illicit cigarettes.
4. Policy Response
Philip Morris calls for evidence-based regulation, enhanced law enforcement and public-private cooperation to address structural vulnerabilities, curb organized crime’s adaptability and protect fiscal revenues and legitimate tobacco and nicotine industry activity in Europe.
