European wheat futures fall on Black Sea relief hopes
European wheat futures fell on Tuesday as the market assessed chances for a diplomatic breakthrough to ease Black Sea war disruption that has choked Russian and Ukrainian exports.
December wheat BL2Z6, the most active contract on Euronext, settled 0.9% down at €236.75 ($276.29) a metric ton.
On Monday, the contract had equalled a four-week high of €242 from last Thursday before losing momentum, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said there will be a "diplomatic track" with Russia regarding Black Sea attacks.
Traders weigh alternative supply routes and extra supply
News that a U.S. military aircraft landed in Moscow on Tuesday, with U.S. media later referring to a visit by the head of the CIA, added to speculation among grain traders about possible efforts towards de-escalation.
However, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Tuesday that its forces had struck five vessels at Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
"Ukraine wants to negotiate, Russia not so much," a futures trader said of the Black Sea situation.
Efforts by Russia and Ukraine to shift their cheaply priced grain by alternative routes were also tempering expectations that demand will swing towards other origins, like European Union.
Traders have cited a certain shift towards EU supplies, with Poland attracting significant sales.
"Some multinational trading houses are covering their wheat needs in Poland because they cannot load vessels in Russia and Ukraine," one Polish trader said.
"I estimate that during the last two weeks around 100,000 to 150,000 tons of Polish wheat were bought, mainly for North Africa including Algeria and Morocco for shipment in September-October."
Romania and Bulgaria were drawing demand too, but overall activity in the EU was moderate as importers still had good 2026 harvests to fall back on.
"Importers are unwilling to pay the high west EU prices. In case there is some kind of ceasefire or deal to stop Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ports, such a deal could bring prices down sharply," a German trader said.
News that India was removing restrictions on wheat exports also helped curb futures, as the move suggested an additional source of supply if Black Sea disruption persisted.
Weekly EU grain export and import data due on Tuesday was delayed due to a technical issue.
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