Europe Gas-Prices gain amid fresh US-Iran attacks
XLE•Dutch gas prices rise as attacks raise supply concerns
OSLO, Aug. 31 (Reuters) - Benchmark Dutch wholesale gas rose on Monday as fresh attacks by the U.S. and Iran dashed hopes that liquefied natural gas flows would resume through the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the northern hemisphere winter, increasing the risk of price spikes.
The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub TFMBMc1 rose by €2.42 to €69.40 per megawatt hour by 0738 GMT, ICE data showed.
The British front-month contract NGLNMc1 did not trade on Monday with markets closed in the UK due to a holiday.
Qatar LNG uncertainty and low storage keep winter risk elevated
The U.S. and Iran traded attacks for the first time since July, while U.S. President Donald Trump posted an AI-generated video clip that he said was Iran's oil hub Kharg Island being blown to smithereens although Iran has denied any attack at Kharg.
The attacks reinforced concerns about a prolonged stalemate between both sides and, as a result, disruptions to energy flows from the Gulf, including LNG, analysts at ING said in a morning note.
The extension of force majeure for some LNG buyers by QatarEnergy until early November also signalled that the northern hemisphere is increasingly looking as though it will enter the 2026/27 winter without Qatari LNG supply, they added.
"Tight supply entering the heating season leaves the market vulnerable to spikes higher later in the year," ING's analysts said.
In a scenario where significant Qatari LNG volumes remain unavailable, the market will become increasingly dependent on U.S. LNG, weather and demand destruction, Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said in a note.
"In a cold winter, a move towards EUR 100/MWh for TTF would no longer look extreme," he added.
EU gas stores are 64.7% full – the lowest for this time of year in records going back to 2011 and 12.4 percentage points behind last year's level, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows.
