Europe gas prices reverse gains on hopes for Iran war deal talks
UNG•European benchmark gas prices fell as markets weighed possible Iran war deal talks against supply constraints and colder weather. Dutch front-month gas was down 4% at €82.09/MWh, while the British contract fell 4.55% to 202.59 pence per therm.
1. Prices turn lower
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices reversed earlier gains as U.S. President Donald Trump was set to meet Qatar’s prime minister on Monday. Senior U.S. and Gulf officials cast doubt on the chances of an imminent deal. Iran’s proposal includes ending the U.S. blockade of its ports and stopping its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; the United States has repeatedly rejected the plan.
2. Supply and demand pressures
A European gas trader cited low storage, constraints on LNG tankers through Hormuz and colder weather ahead. Colder forecasts for the second half of the week are expected to lift heating demand, while lower gas-for-power demand by the weekend and into next week could offset some of it. Norwegian exports were stable, and northwest European LNG send-out was expected to rise as nominations at France’s Montoir terminal increased.
3. Forecasts raised
Energy Aspects raised its average TTF forecast to €107/MWh for December and €102/MWh for the first quarter. It said its October–November European gas demand forecast had risen by 1.1 bcm week over week, with northwest European heating degree days expected to exceed the 10-year norm over the next week.
