Europe gas prices rise as colder weather and lower wind increase demand
UNG•Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose as colder forecasts and lower wind output lifted expected demand, while Middle East tensions kept supply risks elevated. Energy Aspects raised its TTF winter 2026–2027 forecast to €93 per megawatt hour and expects Qatari LNG supply to be about 9.5 million tonnes lower through July 2027.
1. Prices rise on demand outlook
The Dutch front-month TTF contract rose €3.30 to €101.20 per megawatt hour by 0844 GMT, while the British front-month contract gained 7.31 pence to 250.51 pence per therm. Colder temperatures and below-normal German wind generation over the weekend and into next week were expected to support consumption. Norwegian exports and liquefied natural gas supply were stable.
2. Geopolitical risks persist
A tanker was struck by a small boat carrying two explosive devices in the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said. LSEG gas research head Wayne Bryan said geopolitical news was likely to remain a key source of volatility, citing the incident, continued Houthi attacks and potential US-Iran talks.
3. Winter forecast raised
Energy Aspects raised its TTF winter 2026–2027 price forecast to €93 per megawatt hour, citing lower expectations for a recovery in Middle East supply and heavy disruptions expected to persist in the first quarter. It forecast Qatari LNG supply to be about 9.5 million tonnes lower through July 2027, and said Ras Laffan utilisation would average 20–30% from November 2026 through February 2027.
