Europe gas prices rise on intensifying US-Iran hostilities, threat of Red Sea strait closure
XLE•Forecasts and policy developments in Europe
Consultancy Energy Aspects revised its TTF summer and winter 2026-2027 price forecasts to reflect the effects of the intensifying conflict, a slower Qatari liquefaction restart than it previously anticipated and late-scheduled maintenance offshore Norway.
"Prices will remain volatile and may rise further in the very near term on geopolitical uncertainty before correcting slightly on fundamentals," the analysts said.
They expect winter prices from November to February to be bullish as Europe will need to minimise consumption across the heating season due to meagre gas inventories.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 was down €0.77 at €78.42 per metric ton.
The European Commission will propose an overhaul of the EU's Emissions Trading System on Friday, allowing industries to emit CO2 longer while offering more financial support to invest in clean technologies in Europe.
Conflict risks and supply concerns support the market
Iran said it launched fresh attacks on U.S. facilities in the Gulf on Friday after a sixth consecutive night of U.S. strikes on Iranian military facilities, as last month's truce descended into daily attacks and counterattacks.
Iran has signalled it could prod its Houthi allies in Yemen to close another strait: the Bab al-Mandeb at the mouth of the Red Sea, sources told Reuters, if Washington attacks Iran's infrastructure, posing another threat to global energy supplies.
If the U.S. and Iran do not increase oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz soon, the world should worry about energy security, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Thursday.
