Europe gas-prices rise on renewed Middle East strikes

Investment research firm Morningstar forecasts that EU gas storage will fall to **69% by November 1**. Gas prices will need to remain around **€60-70/MWh** under normal winter conditions to attract enough U.S. LNG to balance the market this winter. A cold winter could push TTF to **€90-120/MWh** as Europe competes more aggressively with Asia for limited flexible supply, analysts at Morningstar said. Reaching **80%** of gas storage on November 1 would require **25 bcm** of injections between August and October, **9 bcm** more than last year, but the EU will have barely **14 bcm** of available injections due to supply disruptions caused by the war in Iran, the analysts estimate. EU gas storage is currently **65% full** compared to around **77%** at the same time last year, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed. In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract **CFI2Zc1** was down **€0.69** at **€82.41 per metric ton**. Benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose on Tuesday morning after the first exchange of direct attacks between the United States and Iran in a month renewed fears about even more prolonged supply disruption. The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub **TFMBMc1** edged up by **€0.90** to **€70.70 per megawatt hour (MWh)** by 0749 GMT, ICE data showed. The British front-month contract **NGLNMc1** rose by **9.40 pence** to **174.22 pence per therm**. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened further strikes against Iran on Monday after the first exchange of direct attacks in a month, raising tensions in a conflict that had recently shifted into an economic standoff. Prices continue to be volatile, following a bullish second half of last week. "Given the low storage levels at the start of the last month of the summer season, domestic supply and demand changes could trigger more volatility," said Ulrich Weber, gas analyst at LSEG. Flows from Norway to Britain via the Langeled pipeline are slightly lower and exports through Interconnector gas pipeline between Britain and Belgium have stopped as it has been shut down for 20-day maintenance. Norwegian exports to continental Europe are lower than last week but slightly higher than yesterday. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to north-west Europe were strong last week at nearly **1.6 billion cubic metres (bcm)**, but this week's expectation is so far weaker at **1.1 bcm** of identified arrivals, Weber said.

Europe gas-prices rise on renewed Middle East strikes

Analysts see higher winter prices if storage tightens

European gas prices rise as Middle East tensions flare

Storage, flows and LNG imports remain key price drivers

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