European wholesale gas prices have more than doubled this year, and depleted reserves are expected to keep prices elevated for at least another year. Storage is forecast to be 75%-78% full by November 1, below the five-year average.
European households and industries face at least another year of high gas prices as the continent prepares to refill reserves depleted to record lows. Analysts expect storage to be 75%-78% full by November 1, about 10 percentage points below the five-year average; even with average winter weather, northwest European reserves could fall to around 20% by early April.
European benchmark gas prices have risen more than 150% this year, largely due to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz that trapped almost 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Analysts say competition with Asia for spot cargoes and any further supply disruptions could prompt sharp price spikes. A cold winter could push European storage down to 10%-15%, ABN Amro said.
Consumers are likely to feel the wholesale price rise in 2027 as retail contracts are renewed. In Germany, tariffs for new customers rose 55% this year, and increases of 10%-20% for existing customers are realistic, Verivox said. Britain's household energy price cap could rise another 16% in January, consultancy Cornwall Insight forecasts. The EU's full ban on Russian LNG imports from January 2027 will further tighten supply, while one analyst said market normalisation to pre-conflict levels may not come until 2028.
