Excise Tax to Cut 2026 Volumes but Coke Zero Up 14% and Sprite Zero 93%
Coca-Cola FEMSA expects a low- to mid-single-digit volume decline in 2026 due to Mexico’s higher excise tax. Coke Zero volumes rose 14% in Mexico while Sprite Zero surged 93% in Brazil.
1. Tax Impact and Volume Outlook
The excise tax hike in Mexico is expected to cause a low- to mid-single-digit volume decline in 2026, despite sequential improvement in volumes throughout Q4 and a record-strong December.
2. Strong Zero-Sugar Product Performance
Coke Zero achieved 14% volume growth in Mexico and Sprite Zero posted 93% growth in Brazil, driven by digital tools and improved market execution.
3. Strategic Priorities and CapEx Adjustments
For 2026 the company will focus on growing core beverages, leveraging digital platforms like Juntos+ Advisor, maintaining a lean structure and selectively adjusting capital expenditures in Mexico to manage tax headwinds.
4. FIFA World Cup Engagement Plans
Management anticipates the 2026 World Cup will enhance brand engagement and consumption occasions, particularly for Coca-Cola and Coke Zero.