Expeditors sees strong air freight demand keeping rates elevated in Q4
EXPD•Air freight rates are expected to remain elevated in the fourth quarter as AI investment and e-commerce demand outpace capacity growth. Global air cargo demand rose 8.5%–10% in September, while capacity grew 2.8%–3.5%.
1. Demand outpaces capacity
Air freight rates are expected to remain elevated in the fourth quarter as AI investment and e-commerce demand outpace capacity growth. Global air cargo demand rose 8.5%–10% in September, compared with capacity growth of 2.8%–3.5%.
2. Routes remain constrained
Hyperscaler-related demand could remain strong through the first half of 2027, while aircraft production backlogs continue to constrain capacity. Chinese e-commerce volumes into the US recovered to roughly 85%–90% of levels before restrictions on de minimis entries. Shippers face the tightest conditions on Asia-Pacific–US routes, making early forecasts critical to securing cargo space.
