Exxon Mobil Records 5.0 Million boe/d, Beats Q4 Revenue and EPS Estimates

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Exxon produced a record 5.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 1.8 million bpd in the Permian and 875,000 bpd in Guyana, generating $12.7 billion in operating cash flow and $5.6 billion in free cash flow in Q4 2025. It beat revenue and EPS estimates, announced $20 billion share repurchases for 2026 and $20 billion cost savings by 2030.

1. Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations

Exxon Mobil reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.71, beating the consensus estimate of $1.68. Revenues of $82.3 billion surpassed forecasts despite a year-on-year decline, driven by stronger refining margins and downstream contributions. Operating cash flow reached $12.7 billion, while free cash flow totaled $5.6 billion, reflecting robust cash generation even as upstream realizations softened.

2. Record Upstream Production

Total upstream production averaged approximately 5.0 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, marking the highest fourth-quarter output in four decades. Key milestones included 1.8 million barrels per day in the Permian Basin and nearly 875,000 barrels per day in Guyana. CEO Darren Woods highlighted that technology investments position the company to develop Venezuela’s heavier crude in a cost-effective manner when political and commercial conditions allow.

3. Shareholder Returns and Cost Discipline

Exxon Mobil delivered $37.2 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $17.2 billion in dividends and $20 billion in share repurchases. The board declared a first-quarter dividend of $1.03 per share, payable in March. Since 2019, structural cost savings have totaled $15.1 billion, with $3.0 billion realized in 2025. The company plans an additional $20 billion of buybacks through 2026 and aims to achieve cumulative cost reductions of $20 billion by 2030.

4. 2026 Outlook and Growth Platforms

For 2026, Exxon Mobil forecasts upstream volumes of around 4.9 million barrels per day, with a first-quarter dip of 100,000–200,000 barrels per day due to timing and maintenance. Capital expenditures are expected in the range of $27 billion to $29 billion. The company targets $25 billion of earnings growth and $35 billion of cash-flow growth from 2024 through 2030, underpinned by advantaged projects in Guyana, the Permian and downstream chemical expansions.

Sources

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