Exxon Mobil’s 20% Output Hit Drives Hedge Fund Shift to Chevron
Raymond James warns that volatile commodity swings have forced a substantial reset to Exxon Mobil’s earnings outlook, noting outages have cut roughly 20% of 2025 production in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. The note says hedge funds are favoring higher-beta Chevron over Exxon and expects long-only investor interest to stay elevated after operational disruptions subside.
1. Earnings Reset due to Commodity Volatility
Raymond James reports that sharp swings in oil and gas prices have forced a substantial reset to Exxon Mobil’s earnings expectations for early 2026, with updated sensitivities reflecting heightened downstream and refining uncertainties.
2. Production Outages Impacting 20% of Volumes
Operational disruptions in Qatar and Abu Dhabi have reduced Exxon Mobil’s 2025 production by approximately 20%, compared with 12% at BP and just over 4% at Chevron, amplifying uncertainty around supply forecasts.
3. Investor Rotation and Fund Flows
Hedge funds are favoring higher-beta names like Chevron over Exxon and BP, while long-only investor interest in Big Oil is expected to remain elevated after volatility subsides, despite limited net fund inflows so far in March.