ExxonMobil Hardest Hit as LNG Exports Fall 4%; Shell Set to Capitalize
Global LNG exports dropped 4% to 115 million tonnes in Q1 2026 following Qatar’s full shutdown on March 4, with ExxonMobil most exposed. RBC forecasts majors with large U.S. positions—Shell, TotalEnergies, BP—will capture widened export margins driven by a 50% surge in TTF prices and flat Henry Hub, boosting earnings from Q2.
1. Q1 LNG Export Decline due to Qatar Shutdown
Global LNG exports fell 4% to 115 million tonnes in Q1 2026 after Qatar’s full shutdown on March 4 cut shipments by 26% sequentially and 33% year-on-year. Excluding Qatar, global volumes remained flat as LNG Canada’s second train, Congo Phase 2 and Golden Pass startups offset the disruption.
2. Price Dislocation Drives Margin Opportunities
The conflict in Iran pushed European TTF gas prices up roughly 50% while U.S. Henry Hub remained largely unchanged, sharply widening export margins into Europe and Asia. This arbitrage spike enhances profitability for companies with substantial U.S. export positions.
3. Major Producers’ Positioning and Outlook
Shell, TotalEnergies and BP—with large U.S. equity and offtake stakes—are poised to benefit from widened margins, particularly from Q2 onwards. ExxonMobil, which had the highest exposure to Qatar LNG, saw March utilization fall and will trail peers in capturing early upside.
4. Earnings Impact and Timing
Analysts expect oil trading volatility to dominate Q1 performance, delaying significant LNG margin contributions until the second quarter of 2026. Full benefit of widening regional spreads is projected to flow through corporate earnings from Q2 forward.