United Parcel Service shares reached an all-time closing high of 192.88 in early 2022, reflecting a 286% gain from its 1999 IPO level of 50. Since that peak, the stock has declined by approximately 45% as of late 2025. Over the past three years, the equity has fallen more than 40%, driven by slowing volume growth, margin pressure and investor concerns about near-term headwinds.

Between 2019 and 2021, average daily package volumes climbed from 21.88 million to 25.25 million, and average revenue per package rose from 10.87 to 12.32. Total revenue jumped from 74.09 billion to 97.29 billion, adjusted operating margins expanded from 11% to 13.5%, and diluted EPS increased from 7.53 to 14.68. However, from 2022 through the first nine months of 2025, daily volumes fell back to under 20 million, annual revenue dipped to around 91 billion in 2023 and stabilized at 91.07 billion in 2024, while margins contracted to 6.8% in the first nine months of 2025 and diluted EPS declined to 4.46.

In 2024, UPS signed a new labor agreement with the Teamsters that averted a strike but raised guaranteed wage and pension expenses. Simultaneously, the Federal Aviation Administration grounded the MD-11 fleet—representing roughly 9% of UPS’s aircraft—after a fatal crash, forcing rerouting of packages via trucks and partner carriers during peak season. Combined with digital investment spending, regulatory fines and impairment charges, these factors reduced adjusted operating margins from 13.8% in 2022 to under 7% by late 2025.

Analysts forecast a 3% decline in both full-year 2025 revenue and EPS, reflecting ongoing volume pressures and elevated costs. For 2026, consensus estimates call for roughly flat revenue as margin initiatives—such as automation, cost reductions and a shift toward healthcare and SMB segments—begin to take effect, supporting a projected 7% rise in EPS. UPS plans to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 27, 2026, with leadership discussing performance at an investor webcast later that morning.