FACTBOX-Wall Street firms increasingly brace for Fed rate hikes after jobs report

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026: | Brokerage | Total cuts/hikes in 2026 | No. of cuts/hikes in 2026 | Fed funds rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Citigroup | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% | | Wells Fargo | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% | | Goldman Sachs | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% | | Nomura | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% | | Morgan Stanley | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% | | HSBC | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% | | Standard Chartered | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% | | Societe Generale | No policy change | - | 3.50%-3.75% | | BofA Global Research | 75 bps of hikes | 3 (September, October and December) | 4.25%-4.50% | | Barclays | 50 bps of hikes | 2 (September and December) | 4.00%-4.25% | | Deutsche Bank | 50 bps of hikes | 2 (September and December) | 4.00%-4.25% | | Macquarie | 25 bps rate hike | 1 (September) | 3.75%-4.00% | | BNP Paribas | 25 bps rate hike | 1 (December) | 3.75%-4.00% | | J.P. Morgan | 25 bps rate hike | 1 (December) | 3.75%-4.00% | | Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 25 bps rate hike | 1 | 3.75%-4.00% | | UBS Global Wealth Management | 50 bps of hikes | 2 (September and December) | 4.00%-4.25% | | UBS Global Research | 50 bps of hikes | 2 (September and December) | 4.00%-4.25% | * Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank Sept 8 - Strong U.S. labor market data are driving a growing number of Wall Street firms to forecast further Federal Reserve tightening, as policymakers face less urgency to lower interest rates. UBS and Macquarie are among the latest brokerages forecasting additional Fed tightening, while longstanding Fed dove Citigroup expects rates to remain on hold. The shift followed data showing U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, well above forecasts, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting, with CPI and PPI data due later this week expected to help shape expectations for the central bank's next policy move. Traders now see about a 58.4% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike in September, up from about 52% before last week's jobs report, with an 85% probability that rates will be higher by December, according to CME FedWatch data.

FACTBOX-Wall Street firms increasingly brace for Fed rate hikes after jobs report

Brokerage forecasts for 2026

Wall Street firms raise Fed tightening forecasts after jobs report

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Brokerage	Total cuts/hikes in 2026	No. of cuts/hikes in 2026	Fed funds rate
Citigroup	No policy change	-	3.50%-3.75%
Wells Fargo	No policy change	-	3.50%-3.75%
Goldman Sachs	No policy change	-	3.50%-3.75%
Nomura	No policy change	-	3.50%-3.75%
Morgan Stanley	No policy change	-	3.50%-3.75%
HSBC	No policy change	-	3.50%-3.75%
Standard Chartered	No policy change	-	3.50%-3.75%
Societe Generale	No policy change	-