FactSet sees S&P 500 Energy Q3 earnings growth at 121.1% on higher oil prices

XLE•2026-10-12

FactSet expects S&P 500 Energy sector earnings to grow 121.1% year over year in Q3 2026, reaching an estimated $58 billion, up 23.3% since June 30. Growth is forecast to turn negative by Q2 2027.

1. Q3 earnings estimate

FactSet expects the S&P 500 Energy sector to post 121.1% year-over-year earnings growth in Q3 2026, the strongest among sectors. Estimated earnings rose 23.3% since June 30, to $58 billion from $47 billion, tracking higher oil prices.

2. Oil and sub-industries

WTI rose 30% from June 30 to September 30, reaching $90.42 per barrel from $69.50; its Q3 average increased 32% to $85.68. Refining is projected to lead earnings gains, while oilfield services is the only sub-industry expected to post a year-over-year decline. Energy earnings growth is forecast to cool over the next four quarters and turn negative by Q2 2027, at -21.3%.