FanDuel Predicts App Could Add $125M in Annual Revenue After Surging Downloads
Jefferies forecasts FanDuel Predicts app could generate $125M in annual revenues currently unaccounted for in Flutter's guidance, after average daily downloads surged to 11,000 following a marketing campaign (peak 48,000). Legal pressure mounts as Arizona and Nevada file actions against prediction market rivals and a Ninth Circuit ruling is pending.
1. Jefferies Revenue Estimate
Jefferies projects that if FanDuel Predicts achieves a 5% share of Kalshi’s $125 billion annualized prediction market volume, the app could generate a $125 million revenue run-rate not reflected in current guidance or consensus price targets.
2. Download Momentum
Download momentum has risen sharply after a major marketing push, with daily peaks of 48,000 on March 14 and an average of 11,000 over the past week—up from 3,000 in February—and capturing roughly 30% of incremental downloads among major US prediction market apps.
3. Regulatory Challenges
Regulatory pressure is building as Arizona files criminal charges and Nevada issues a temporary restraining order against rival Kalshi, while federal legislators introduce bills to curb sports event prediction contracts and a Ninth Circuit ruling is expected in coming months.
4. Core Sports Betting Trends
Flutter’s core US sports betting handle has trended lower, with New York state declines of 9% in January, 5% in February and 2% in March, underscoring challenges in its flagship business.