FDA Approves Wegovy Pill with 16.6% Weight Loss, Launch Jan 2026 Ahead of Eli Lilly

LLYLLY

The FDA approved Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill on December 23, 2025, allowing a January launch versus Eli Lilly’s orforglipron approval likely in late March. Oral Wegovy achieved 16.6% average weight loss at 64 weeks versus 12.4% at 72 weeks for orforglipron, risking erosion of Lilly’s oral GLP-1 market share.

1. Institutional Investors Increase Holdings

Third-quarter 13F filings show continued confidence in Eli Lilly’s long-term growth story. Ascent Group LLC boosted its position by 3.3%, acquiring an additional 575 shares to reach 17,821 shares worth approximately $13.6 million. Vanguard Group added 1.5% to its stake, now holding over 80 million shares, while Laurel Wealth Advisors grew its stake by an extraordinary 78,621%, ending the period with 11.55 million shares. Collectively, institutional investors and hedge funds own more than 82% of the outstanding shares, underscoring broad support from large fiduciaries even after recent market volatility.

2. Q3 Earnings Top Expectations and FY25 Guidance Raised

In Q3, Eli Lilly reported adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, exceeding consensus estimates by $0.60, and revenue of $17.6 billion, topping forecasts by over $1.5 billion. This represented a year-over-year revenue increase of 53.9%, driven by strong demand for oncology and diabetes treatments. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to a range of 23.00–23.70, up from prior guidance of 22.70–23.20, signaling confidence in continued margin expansion and robust product launches in the pipeline.

3. Enhanced Dividend Policy Provides Income Cushion

Eli Lilly’s board approved a quarterly dividend increase to $1.73 per share, up from $1.50, representing an annualized payout of $6.92 and a payout ratio near 29%. This marks the 10th consecutive year of dividend growth and delivers a yield of approximately 0.6%—more than double the average yield in the S&P 500 health-care sector. Management has reaffirmed its commitment to returning capital through dividends and share repurchases, supported by a strong balance sheet and free cash flow generation exceeding $12 billion year-to-date.

4. Analyst Ratings Reflect Moderate Buy Consensus

Wall Street research remains constructive, with 21 Buy ratings and four Hold ratings from major brokerages. The consensus EPS estimate for FY 2026 stands at 24.50, implying mid‐single-digit growth over raised FY 2025 guidance. Price targets range from $950 to $1,200, reflecting a forward P/E multiple in line with the biotechnology peer group and potential upside from late-stage pipeline assets including novel oncology antibody-drug conjugates and next-generation immuno-oncology candidates.

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