Fidelis Capital says history favors fifth-year gains for S&P 500 bull market
SPY•SPY•SPY•SPY•Fidelis Capital Partners says five of six bull markets that reached four years since 1957 posted gains in their fifth year, averaging 14%. The S&P 500 has risen about 120% since its October 12, 2022, low, while persistent inflation and expected Federal Reserve rate increases remain risks.
Fidelis Capital Partners sees historical support for further S&P 500 gains as the bull market enters its fifth year. The index has gained approximately 120% since its October 12, 2022, low, with artificial intelligence investment and resilient consumers supporting the advance. Five of six previous bull markets that reached four years since 1957 posted fifth-year gains, averaging 14%.
FactSet projects roughly 16% earnings growth in 2027, supporting an economy the analysis describes as relatively solid. The analysis identifies Federal Reserve tightening as the key risk: markets are pricing three rate increases across 2026 and 2027 amid persistent inflation pressures.
