Fidelis Capital sees historical support for bull market gains in fifth year
SPY•Fidelis Capital cited historical support for further S&P 500 gains in the bull market’s fifth year, while warning that tighter Federal Reserve policy is a key risk. Five of six bull markets reaching four years since 1957 posted fifth-year gains, averaging 14%.
1. Historical bull market gains
Fidelis Capital’s October 16 analysis said the S&P 500 gained approximately 120% in the four years after its October 12, 2022, low, supported by artificial intelligence and consumer resilience. Five of six bull markets that reached four years since 1957 posted gains in their fifth year, averaging 14%.
2. Earnings and rate outlook
FactSet projects roughly 16% earnings growth in 2027, and the economy is on relatively solid footing heading into year-end 2026. Bloomberg implied-rate data showed markets expecting three Federal Reserve hikes across 2026 and 2027, while higher energy costs weighed on inflation expectations.
