First Horizon Sees 35% Mortgage Growth, $100M AI-Driven Revenue Opportunity

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First Horizon posted a $12 million quarterly decline in fee income from equipment finance seasonality and expects slight deposit cost increases in Q2 and Q3 due to heightened competition. Mortgage loan balances climbed 35% year-over-year and a $100 million PPNR opportunity driven by AI-enabled revenue scaling was unveiled.

1. Deposit Competition and Cost Outlook

First Horizon faces rising deposit competition as peers offer longer guarantees and higher rates. Management expects spot rates below market average and forecasts slight deposit cost increases in Q2 and Q3 if policy rates remain unchanged. New-to-bank promotions are also anticipated to apply upward pressure on funding costs.

2. Fee Income Decline and Loan Growth

Fee income fell by $12 million quarter-over-quarter, largely driven by normal seasonality and fluctuations in the equipment finance business. Meanwhile, mortgage loan balances surged 35% year-over-year, and commercial and industrial pipelines remain as robust as in 2021-2022. Commercial real estate pipelines also mirror low-rate era levels, underscoring strong lending demand.

3. Credit Performance and Capital Targets

Credit performance remains stable with net charge-offs at 18 basis points. Management monitors consumer discretionary sectors like trucking and restaurants for energy-related risks, while private credit exposure stays below 1% of the loan book. The bank maintains a 10.5% CET1 target, evaluating any adjustments based on macro uncertainties such as oil prices and inflation.

4. PPNR Opportunity and NIM Outlook

First Horizon outlined a $100 million pre-provision net revenue opportunity focused on deepening client relationships and leveraging AI to scale revenue without inflating back-office costs. The flat expense outlook includes ongoing investments in technology and talent to support growth. Executives anticipate manageable NIM impact despite slight deposit cost increases and fixed asset repricing.

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