Fiserv Shares Imply 5% Annual Revenue Decline Through 2035
FISV•UBS HOLT valuation shows Fiserv shares imply a 5% annual revenue decline from 2029 to 2035, contrasted with consensus forecasting mid-teens growth through 2029. It also finds Fidelity National Information Services and Global Payments priced for roughly 10% annual revenue declines over the same period.
1. HOLT Valuation Framework
The HOLT framework calculates market-implied growth rates based on companies’ cash-generating ability, using current share prices and returns on capital. It contrasts these implied rates over a 2029-2035 horizon with consensus analyst forecasts for the next three years.
2. Fiserv Market-Implied Growth
Current Fiserv share prices imply a 5% annual revenue decline between 2029 and 2035, while consensus projections call for mid-teens growth through 2029. This gap suggests investors remain skeptical of Fiserv’s ability to sustain its recent expansion trajectory.
3. Peer Pricing Divergence
The findings show Fidelity National Information Services and Global Payments are both priced for roughly 10% annual revenue declines over the 2029-2035 period. In contrast, Visa and Mastercard carry implied long-term growth around 7%, closer to their low-double-digit forecasted rates.
4. Sector Returns Outlook
U.S. payments firms have historically generated returns on capital well above the broader market average, but market-implied expectations remain markedly lower. This persistent gap indicates ongoing investor concerns over the sector’s long-term growth durability.
