Fitch affirms Iraq at 'B-'; outlook stable
TLT•Fitch affirmed Iraq's rating at 'B-' with a stable outlook, citing commodity dependence, weak governance, political risk and fiscal rigidities.
1. Rating and assumptions
Fitch affirmed Iraq at 'B-' with a stable outlook. Its baseline assumes some form of durable deal will reopen the Strait of Hormuz around the first quarter of 2027; it expects total expenditure to decline as authorities adjust to lower revenue, given limited flexibility to cut spending. Fitch said a re-escalation of hostilities due to the Iran war later in 2027 or beyond cannot be ruled out.
