Flutter Entertainment Price Target Slashed 45% to $210; US EBITDA Forecasts Cut
Jefferies cut Flutter Entertainment’s price target by 45% to $210 and trimmed 2026–28 EBITDA forecasts by up to 19%, including a 21–28% reduction in US projections, while retaining a buy rating. The broker’s reverse DCF analysis implies zero future US growth despite Flutter’s reversible promotional inefficiencies and 5% Missouri adoption.
1. Price Target Reduction
Jefferies slashed Flutter Entertainment’s price target from $380 to $210, representing a 45% cut, while maintaining a buy rating, arguing the stock’s de-rating reflects overly pessimistic growth expectations.
2. EBITDA Forecast Cuts
The broker lowered its EBITDA estimates by 13–19% for 2026–28, with US forecasts down 21–28%, citing margin pressures from NFL betting and inefficient promotional spending as key drivers of the revision.
3. Reverse DCF Growth Implications
Jefferies’ reverse discounted cash flow analysis suggests the current valuation prices in zero future US growth, a claim at odds with its own projection of a 16% five-year EBITDA compound annual growth rate.
4. Missouri Launch and Promotional Efficiency
Flutter attributed recent US handle weakness to reversible factors such as customer recycling and sports calendar effects, highlighting a 5% population signup rate in Missouri within 30 days and minimal cannibalization from prediction markets.