US Lawmakers Probe Ford's CATL-Licensed LFP Battery Production Plan

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Republican House committee chair is scrutinizing Ford's plan to repurpose its U.S. battery plants to produce lithium iron phosphate cells and grid-scale storage systems licensed from China's CATL. The inquiry could delay deployment of new LFP-equipped vehicles and impact Ford's strategy to expand into grid-scale energy storage.

1. Strong Momentum with Attractive Valuation

Ford Motor has climbed approximately 12% over the past four weeks, placing it among the top performers in our Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain screen. Despite this recent surge, the shares trade at a forward P/E of 7.8 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.1, well below the industry averages of 10.5 and 1.7, respectively. Investors have responded positively to the company’s successful launch of the all-electric F-150 Lightning, which reached production of 6,500 units in December, helping Ford deliver total North American EV sales of 31,200 vehicles in 2025. The company’s $7.5 billion battery manufacturing joint venture with SK On is on track to commence production later this year, underpinning expectations for continued margin expansion and cash generation through 2026.

2. Congressional Scrutiny of Battery Manufacturing Plan

Republican U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce Chair Jason Smith has sent a formal inquiry to Ford’s CEO, challenging the decision to retrofit the Michigan Assembly Plant and the Louisville Assembly Plant for lithium iron phosphate cell production using CATL’s licensed technology. Smith’s letter requests details on technology transfer agreements, projected annual output capacity—estimated by Ford at 45 gigawatt-hours—and the percentage of materials sourced domestically versus imported from China. The committee cites national security concerns over reliance on foreign sovereign entities for critical battery inputs, demanding a response by February 20. Ford has publicly committed to maintaining at least 60% domestic content in its LFP supply chain by 2027 but has yet to specify how it will achieve that threshold.

3. Upward Earnings Estimate Revisions Fuel Buy Case

Analysts have raised full-year 2026 EPS forecasts for Ford by an average of 8% over the past month, lifting consensus estimates from $2.75 to $2.97. Revisions reflect stronger-than-expected gross margins in the luxury Lincoln line, which expanded by 110 basis points in Q4, and guidance for adjusted free cash flow of $8 billion–$9 billion, up from previous guidance of $6 billion–$7 billion. Institutional buying has accelerated, with mutual funds increasing their combined Ford share holdings by 15 million shares since November. The recent upgrade of Ford to "Overweight" by two major brokerages highlights confidence in the company’s ability to leverage electric vehicle investments and cost discipline to deliver double-digit ROIC by 2027.

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