Forum Real Estate sees falling apartment supply supporting rent growth
XLRE•Forum Real Estate Group says apartment construction starts are 73% below their 2022 peak, while national occupancy reached 95.6% in Q3 2026. Apartment values fell 14% from Q3 2022 through Q2 2026 even as net operating income rose 9%.
1. Apartment values and yields
Forum Real Estate Group sees apartment investment opportunities as debt maturities force repricing, while falling supply strengthens market fundamentals. Apartment values fell 14% from Q3 2022 through Q2 2026, despite a 9% increase in net operating income. Newer assets that traded at 4%-5% yields in 2021 now price closer to 6% or higher.
2. Supply and occupancy
Construction starts are 73% below their 2022 peak, reaching their lowest level since 2011. National apartment occupancy reached 95.6% in Q3 2026, and wage growth outpaced rent growth for 42 consecutive months through August.
