FTI Consulting Survey: 77% Forecast Rising Defaults, 21% Strong Fraud Oversight Confidence
FTI Consulting’s survey finds 58% of lenders expect defaults to increase slightly and 19% foresee substantial rises, while only 21% are strongly confident in current fraud risk oversight. Respondents expect the Fed funds rate at 3%-4% year-end and are divided on AI’s impact, with 53% citing improved information flow.
1. Elevated Default Projections
FTI Consulting’s survey shows 58% of leveraged loan market lenders expect default and workout volumes to increase slightly and 19% foresee substantial increases in the year ahead, compared to 50% who predicted rises in the prior survey, indicating growing lender caution.
2. Fraud Oversight Confidence
Only 21% of respondents reported strong confidence in fraud risk oversight within the leveraged credit market, while 60% were somewhat confident and 19% lacked confidence, reflecting heightened concerns after recent lending sector fraud headlines.
3. AI Impact Split
Respondents expressed mixed views on AI’s role in leveraged lending, with 53% anticipating improved information flow among parties due to AI investments, but 21% warning of an underestimated AI investment crash risk in 2026.
4. Fed Funds and Economic Forecasts
Nearly 73% of surveyed lenders expect the Fed funds rate to end 2026 between 3% and 4%, implying limited further rate cuts, and about 40% foresee stagnant or negative GDP growth, while 68% view a recession chance as minor or negligible.