Galaxy Digital Cuts CLARITY Act Odds to 50% and Launches Institutional OTC Prediction Markets
GLXY•Galaxy Digital cut its estimated 2026 CLARITY Act passage odds from 60% to 50% on June 26, citing Senate schedule constraints and lack of unified bill text delaying a floor vote past the August recess. It launched institutional OTC prediction markets targeting hedge funds and family offices.
1. Regulatory Probability Reduction
Galaxy Digital's Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 60% to 50% on June 26, citing a compressed Senate calendar and intensified competition for floor time. The Senate adjourned until July 13 and faces an August recess, leaving only two to three weeks for floor consideration before midterm campaigning intensifies. A merged Senate bill text has yet to be released by the Banking and Agriculture Committees, pushing any vote past the recess into September and raising doubts about securing the 60 votes needed for passage.
2. Institutional OTC Prediction Markets Launch
Separately, Galaxy Digital introduced institutional over-the-counter prediction markets aimed at hedge funds and family offices, offering discrete liquidity solutions. The platform is designed to leverage the firm's research capabilities and deepen engagement with sophisticated investors, potentially unlocking new revenue streams and supporting a reevaluation of Galaxy's valuation metrics.
