Galaxy Digital Research Raises CLARITY Act Odds to 75% After 15-9 Vote
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn raised his CLARITY Act passage probability to 75% after a 15-9 Senate Banking Committee vote, up from 50%. He projects final Senate passage by end-June, House reconciliation in July, and a potential presidential signature in early August.
1. Committee Vote Impact
Alex Thorn increased his model’s probability estimate for the CLARITY Act passing to 75% after a 15-9 Senate Banking Committee vote, marking a 25-point rise from his April forecast. Two Democrats, Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, joined all committee Republicans to advance the bill.
2. Legislative Path and Timing
The bill still needs 60 Senate floor votes to overcome a filibuster, followed by House reconciliation and a presidential signature. Thorn’s timeline forecasts Senate floor consideration by mid-June, final Senate approval by end-June, House action through July, and a potential signature in the first week of August within a nine-week pre-recess window.
3. Stablecoin Yield Compromise
A Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise resolved a structural dispute over stablecoin holders earning interest, eliminating the primary risk flagged in Thorn’s earlier model. This agreement has solidified bipartisan momentum and made Senate floor consideration the base case.
4. Remaining Obstacles and Market Estimates
Senator Elizabeth Warren’s opposition on anti-money-laundering and ethics provisions could complicate final votes, as carve-out requests create friction among offices. Other estimates set passage odds at 60% by policy groups and 68% by market traders, underscoring lingering uncertainties.