German chemicals lobby lifts 2026 sales forecast, but warns recovery remains elusive
XLB•German chemicals lobby VCI raised its 2026 industry sales growth forecast to 3.5% from 2.5%, driven entirely by higher prices. It said production volumes fell 3.5% year over year in the third quarter and a sustainable recovery is not in sight.
1. Forecast rises on prices
VCI raised its forecast for German chemical and pharmaceutical industry turnover growth this year to 3.5% from 2.5%, citing higher producer prices. The association said the temporary boost from supply disruptions tied to the Iran war had faded, and that the forecast increase would not reflect stronger production volumes.
2. Recovery remains elusive
VCI said the industry's economic situation was, at best, stabilising at a low level, with no sustainable recovery in sight. It also described the outlook for 2027 as bleak due to persistent political and structural challenges.
3. Third-quarter figures
Industry revenue rose 5.8% year over year to €53 billion in the third quarter, but fell 2.7% from the second quarter. Production volumes fell 3.5% year over year, while capacity utilisation edged up to 76.6% from 73.4% in the second quarter, mainly reflecting plant closures and capacity cuts rather than stronger output.
