Germany's higher tax revenue estimates will not offer more fiscal leeway, minister says
EWG•Germany’s tax experts expect €43.4 billion more in revenue from 2026 to 2030 than forecast in May, but just €3.3 billion will go to the federal government. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said the higher estimates will not create additional fiscal leeway.
1. Revenue outlook rises
Germany’s council of tax experts expects €43.4 billion more in tax revenue from 2026 to 2030 than forecast in May. Only €3.3 billion of the increase is expected to go to the federal government; states and municipalities will receive more.
2. Budget room remains tight
Klingbeil said the government must continue consolidating the federal budget. The council expects 2027 federal tax revenue to be €4.1 billion above its May forecast, but planned tax relief will absorb €1.7 billion and the debt brake’s cyclical component will absorb a further €2.5 billion. A €22 billion budget shortfall remains for 2028.
3. Growth forecasts raised
The government raised its economic growth forecast to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, from 0.5% and 0.9% in its April forecasts. The ministry attributed higher-than-expected tax revenue to a nascent economic recovery.
