Gevo expects carbon business revenue to exceed $50 million in 2026
GEVO•Gevo expects carbon business revenue to exceed $50 million in 2026, excluding Section 45Z incentives. It reported about $20 million in third-quarter sales of banked Canadian credits and $70 million in Section 45Z tax credit sales.
1. Carbon revenue outlook
Gevo expects carbon business revenue above $50 million in 2026, excluding Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit incentives. Sales of banked Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation credits generated approximately $20 million in the third quarter, while ongoing carbon revenue is projected at $30 million annually.
2. Credits and capacity
Separately, sales of Section 45Z tax credits totaled $70 million, representing substantially all expected credits for the year. North Dakota debottlenecking remains on track for fourth-quarter commissioning and is expected to increase ethanol capacity and carbon capture by 10% to 15% for full-year 2027. A larger expansion targets a fourth-quarter 2026 final investment decision and completion in 2028, potentially doubling North Dakota capacity and revenue.
