Global diesel prices seen staying high despite Trump's deal with Russia
USO•Analysts said Russia’s announced diesel exports are unlikely to meaningfully lower prices, which have remained above $6 a gallon at US retail since topping that level in September. They cited limited potential supply, refinery constraints and high freight costs.
1. Limited price relief expected
Analysts said Russia’s announced diesel shipments are too small to ease the global supply squeeze meaningfully. The initial 2.25 million barrels would equal about 73,000 barrels per day if distributed over a month, while estimates of the additional supply needed to soften prices range from 400,000 to 850,000 barrels per day.
2. Export capacity in question
Russia said it would export 300,000 metric tons immediately, followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons afterward. Analysts questioned whether Russia could meet those targets, citing limited export availability, refinery capacity offline and little surplus after domestic consumption. Russia produces about 1.4 million barrels per day and consumes roughly 1.2 million barrels per day, according to the article.
3. Shipping and supply constraints
Disruptions to Russian and Middle Eastern diesel exports reached 1.3 million barrels per day in September, about 4.5% of global diesel and gasoil demand. Elevated freight rates and a tight tanker market could hinder shipments, while the International Energy Agency has warned shortages could persist into 2027.
