Global GLP-1 Sales Forecast Lifted to $150B by 2030; Lilly Seen With 62% Share
LLY•Eli Lilly’s global GLP-1 sales forecast was raised to $150 billion by 2030 with 59 million patients expected on therapy, up from 46 million. Lilly is projected to hold 62% of total GLP-1 market while oral formulations climb to 14% of sales.
1. Forecast Revised Upwards
TD Cowen raised its global GLP-1 sales forecast from $139 billion to $150 billion by 2030 and now projects 59 million patients on GLP-1 therapies by the decade’s end.
2. Volume and Pricing Dynamics
Declining price per treatment is expected to be offset by significant volume growth, driving overall revenue increases despite pricing pressure on individual doses.
3. Market Share Leadership
Lilly’s Mounjaro, Zepbound and newly launched Foundayo are forecast to capture 62% of the GLP-1 market, with Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic supporting a 31% share.
4. Oral Therapy Outlook
Non-injectable GLP-1 treatments are now expected to account for 14% of total sales, up from 11%, as competition intensifies in the oral weight-loss therapy segment.
