Global LNG-Asia spot prices hit over 3-year high on Mideast tensions, South Asia demand

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose week-on-week for the first time in seven weeks to **$15,500/day**, while Pacific rates eased to **$22,500/day**, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan. The U.S. front-month arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope widened to point more firmly to Europe, while the arbitrage via Panama remains open to Asia, he added. Asian spot liquefied natural gas rose to its strongest levels in over three-and-a-half years, as renewed tensions in the Middle East and South Asian demand pushed prices higher. The average price for October delivery into northeast Asia LNG-AS was estimated at **$25.70 per million British thermal units (mmBtu)**, the highest since December 2022 and up from **$23.20/mmBtu** last week. "Asian LNG prices edged up this week as renewed U.S.–Iran military exchanges ignited persistent supply risks from the Middle East region," said Energy Aspects analyst Kesher Sumeet. "South Asia continued spot tenders, with India and Bangladesh leading calls for cross-basin cargoes to backfill lost Middle East term volumes," he said, adding that while price-sensitive Asian demand is gradually being curtailed, government support has cushioned the impact of high prices. Bangladesh bought a cargo as high as **$28/mmBtu**, and Indian demand is also holding strong, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus. "The inter-basin arbitrage is closed, which has supported offers into Europe, but falling charter rates have left some firms who are long shipping no other way to capitalise on their excess length than offering into Asia assuming sunk shipping, supporting cross-basin offers," he added. In Europe, S&P Global Energy assessed its daily Northwest Europe (NWE) LNG price benchmark for cargoes delivered in October on an ex-ship basis (DES) at **$23.695/mmBtu** on Thursday, a **$0.64/mmBtu** discount to the price at the Dutch TTF gas hub. Argus assessed the October DES NWE price at **$23.725/mmBtu**, while Spark Commodities assessed it at **$23.884/mmBtu**. "NWE LNG prices continued to strengthen over the week, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent concerns over European winter supply adequacy," said Aly Blakeway, head of Atlantic LNG at S&P Global Energy. While there has been an increase in available U.S. volumes and more cargo offers for October and November delivery, particularly into Northwest Europe, uncertainty surrounding winter balances, storage requirements and potential further escalation in the Middle East limited trading activity, he added. Europe's gas market will enter winter from a structurally tight position, even if Strait of Hormuz export flows resume in the coming months, said Hans Van Cleef, head of energy research at EqoLibrium. "As a wealthy continent, Europe is well-placed to buy its way out of a supply crisis. The more relevant risk for the coming winter is therefore price-related. A sharp rise in prices due to a bidding war on the global LNG market is a near certainty this winter."

Global LNG-Asia spot prices hit over 3-year high on Mideast tensions, South Asia demand

Freight rates and arbitrage shifts

Asian LNG spot prices reach strongest levels since 2022

Europe prices strengthen as winter supply concerns persist

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