Global markets-Shares turn cautious ahead of Warsh speech; FX, bonds hold breath

Oil prices were headed for weekly losses as Iran and Oman had agreed on administering traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and sharing revenues, though Washington has shown little interest in reviving direct talks with Tehran. Brent eased 0.1% to $89.63 a barrel but was set for a weekly drop of over 5%. In commodity markets, gold slipped 0.3% to $4,587 an ounce and was set for a small drop of 0.2% this week. On Friday, 30-year Treasury yields were little changed at 5.1973% and were down 8 basis points this week, after briefly topping 5.3% for the first time since 2007 and prompting a surprise intervention from U.S. Treasury to step up its buyback programme. Ten-year yields were steady at 4.6723% and were down 7 bps this week, while two-year yields held at 4.2279% and were steady for the week. The dollar was little changed against its major peers at 99.12 on Friday but is up 0.3% for the week. The Australian dollar was among the best-performing G10 currencies after a hot inflation report this week triggered a sharp repricing of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest-rate outlook. The Aussie hit a three-month top of $0.72 and was set for a weekly rise of 0.4%, the ninth straight week of gains. Shares in Asia turned cautious on Friday after a Nvidia-fuelled technology rally, while currency and bond markets held their breath for the world's most powerful central banker to speak on U.S. interest rates. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1%, while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.5%. Taiwanese shares gained 1.2% after Nvidia jumped nearly 9% overnight after the chipmaker reported robust results and signalled the AI spending boom has years left to run. South Korea's KOSPI, however, fell 1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 0.3%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were off 0.1%, while EURO STOXX 50 futures edged up 0.3%. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium where chair Kevin Warsh is slated to speak later in the day. Three Fed officials have already sounded the alarm about sticky inflation but the new central bank chief has resisted providing forward guidance about where interest rates are going. Futures imply around a 35% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates when it meets on September 16 and are fully priced for a move by December. "While we do not expect him to offer forward guidance, markets are hoping he will reduce some of the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's reaction function," said analysts at ANZ in a note to clients. "We do not expect that will be forthcoming but, given recent volatility in rates markets, if Warsh offers too little, that could lead to an adverse market reaction." Longer-dated yields have jumped after the Fed's July meeting as Warsh was seen as not offering enough concrete steps for addressing persistently high inflation. He is also presiding over a divided Fed, with several policymakers calling for interest rate increases to stem price pressures.

Global markets-Shares turn cautious ahead of Warsh speech; FX, bonds hold breath

Oil and gold ease

Treasury yields, dollar and Australian dollar

Asia shares turn cautious after Nvidia-led rally

Warsh speech and Fed outlook keep markets focused on rates

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