Global markets tick up with oil steady on Hormuz plans

Asian shares rose overnight, tracking Wall Street stocks, which hit a record high on Friday after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report caused traders to cut their bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.1%, while South Korea added 0.7%. Overall, the MSCI index of global stocks climbed 0.1% on Monday. "We are keeping our view of no hikes from the Fed for this year," said Mohit Kumar, a senior European economist at Jefferies. "Key would be this week's inflation report." Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. July consumer price index to have risen 3.4% year on year in data on Wednesday, compared to 3.5% the previous month. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to increase 2.5% annually, from 2.6% in June. "If oil prices remain contained and move lower from the current levels, that would prevent the need for the Fed to hike rates," Kumar said. Traders in the Fed futures market have scaled back their bets on a rate hike and now see a roughly 45% chance of a September move, from 67% a week ago. Stock markets around the world have hit record highs in recent weeks, boosted by strong corporate earnings. Analysts at BofA noted that with nearly 90% of S&P 500 results in, earnings per share were up 30% on the year after excluding investment gains at Alphabet and Amazon. A 76% EPS beat rate matched the strongest level since 2021. Strategists at JPMorgan revised up their 2026 EPS estimate to $365, marking annual growth of 35%, and lifted their S&P 500 price target to 8,000 from 7,800. It is currently at 7,758. Earnings are lighter this week but include semiconductor company Applied Materials, networking equipment maker Cisco and cloud infrastructure technology company CoreWeave. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell 1 basis point to 4.643%, with the market bracing for $125 billion in new issuance this week. Currency markets were broadly steady, with the euro just off a seven-week top at $1.156. The dollar rose 0.4% against the yen to 158.48, though investors were still wary of intervention. Bank of Japan policymakers warned of mounting inflation risks that could require a faster-than-expected pace of interest rate increases, a summary of opinions at their July meeting showed, boosting the case for a September hike. Global equities inched higher on Monday as oil prices held broadly steady after Iran said it was nearing a final pact with Oman defining new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, and as markets awaited key U.S. inflation data on Wednesday. Europe's continent-wide Stoxx 600 index rose 0.1% while futures for the U.S. S&P 500 climbed 0.2% and those for the tech-focused Nasdaq were up 0.4%. Iran said on Sunday that a deal with Oman about transit through the Strait of Hormuz was in its final stages but reiterated that the waterway would only reopen once the United States met other conditions. Brent crude was little changed at $83.50 a barrel as shipping through the strait remained at a trickle, although it remained well below late April's peak of more than $126 a barrel.

Global markets tick up with oil steady on Hormuz plans

Markets await U.S. inflation data

Earnings and rates remain in focus

Stocks edge higher as oil stays steady

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