GLP-1 boom in China, India, Brazil could create $22 billion market by 2035, J.P. Morgan says
XLV•J.P. Morgan estimates the combined GLP-1 market in China, India and Brazil could grow to $22 billion by 2035 from $6.6 billion currently, a 15% annual rate. It expects China to overtake Brazil by 2027, reaching $13.7 billion by 2035, versus $8 billion for Brazil.
1. Market growth outlook
The combined China, India and Brazil market for GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes drugs could grow to $22 billion by 2035 from $6.6 billion currently, J.P. Morgan estimated. Analysts led by Yang Huang forecast an annual growth rate of 15%, citing large diabetes and obesity burdens and improving affordability and access.
2. Adoption remains low
GLP-1 penetration is below 0.1% in China and under 0.2% in India, compared with 4%-5% in the United States, the brokerage said. Brazil is currently the largest of the three markets, but drug penetration is projected to reach 7%-8% of its obese population by 2035, versus about 30% in the United States.
3. Country projections
J.P. Morgan expects China to overtake Brazil by 2027, with its market reaching $13.7 billion by 2035, compared with $8 billion for Brazil. The brokerage cited diabetes burden and wider reimbursement in China, and identified Innovent, Divi's Laboratories, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and RD Saude as stocks to play the growth theme.
