Gold edges up as softer inflation data dents Fed rate-hike bets
GLD•Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,165.29 an ounce as softer US inflation data lowered markets’ October rate-hike odds to 31% from 69% a week earlier. HSBC cut its average gold price forecasts to $4,490 an ounce for 2026 and $4,825 for 2027.
1. Inflation eases rate bets
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday after US inflation rose less than expected in August, reducing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Markets priced in a 31% chance of a hike, down from 45% before the data release and 69% a week earlier. Spot gold gained 0.2% to $4,165.29 an ounce, while December US gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $4,202.30.
2. Yields limit gains
Rising 10-year US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar limited bullion’s gains. Investors awaited the September US nonfarm payrolls report due Friday for clues on the monetary policy outlook. Gold prices fell more than 6% in September.
3. HSBC cuts forecasts
HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $4,490 and $4,825 an ounce, respectively, saying gold could face further near-term pressure but was likely nearing a bottom. The bank expects central banks to resume buying in response to price declines, especially near or below $4,000.
