Gold rises as softer inflation data dents Fed rate-hike bets
GLD•Gold rose 0.6% to $4,181.02 an ounce after US inflation came in below forecasts, lowering the market-implied chance of an October Fed rate hike to 37% from 69% a week earlier. HSBC cut its average gold price forecasts to $4,490 an ounce for 2026 and $4,825 for 2027.
1. Inflation data lifts gold
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,181.02 per ounce, while December US gold futures gained 0.6% to $4,211.20. US inflation undershot forecasts in August, and markets priced in a 37% chance of an October rate hike, down from 45% before the data and 69% a week earlier. David Meger of High Ridge Futures said lower rate-hike expectations had supported precious metals.
2. Yields and forecasts
US 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level in more than two decades, while a stronger dollar also limited gold’s gains. Investors awaited the September US nonfarm payrolls report and remarks from Fed policymakers. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $4,490 and $4,825 per ounce, respectively, and said central banks could resume buying if prices fell, especially near or below $4,000.
