Goldman: $1.5T Hyperscaler Capex Sparks 66.6% Surge in VanEck Nuclear ETF
Goldman Sachs projects U.S. hyperscalers deploying $1.5 trillion in capital expenditures from 2023 to 2026, triggering a shift into capital-intensive sectors under its new HALO framework. VanEck Uranium and Nuclear Energy ETF climbed 66.62% over past year, outpacing tech-focused ETFs as energy, materials and utilities beneficiaries attract renewed investor flows.
1. HALO Framework Introduced
Goldman Sachs strategists unveiled the HALO concept—Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence—to identify companies with substantial physical capital and long-lived assets that maintain value across technology cycles.
2. Hyperscaler Capex Growth
Since ChatGPT’s 2022 launch, U.S. hyperscalers have ramped capex to $1.5 trillion for 2023–2026, compared with $600 billion over their pre-2022 history, with 2026 capex forecast to exceed $650 billion.
3. Sector Rotation Performance
This capital-intensive rotation propelled energy, utilities and materials ETFs: VanEck Uranium and Nuclear Energy ETF gained 66.62%, VanEck Gold Miners ETF rose 156% and SPDR Metals & Mining ETF added 92.11%, while tech-software ETFs fell over 20%.
4. Investor Implications
Valuation spreads between capital-intensive and capital-light sectors have converged, fueling investor flows into tangible-asset ETFs and prompting consensus forecasts of stronger EPS growth and ROE in heavy-asset industries.