Goldman continues to see net upside risk to $4,900/oz end-2026 gold forecast
GS•Goldman keeps $4,900 gold forecast for end-2026
Sept. 11 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs continues to see upside potential to its forecast for gold price to reach $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, although it expects price swings to remain high, the bank said in a note on Friday.
Goldman's fair-value forecast of $4,900/oz by end-2026 assumes central banks continue buying gold at a strong pace and that investor demand for gold-backed ETFs recovers as the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in 2026.
What could push gold above or below the forecast
Highlights from the note:
- The forecast does not account for the recent surge in demand for gold call options.
- If ETF inflows pick up and current elevated call option positioning persists, dealer hedging could mechanically amplify the rally and drive gold prices above Goldman's forecast.
- A renewed rise in expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates could trigger a selloff.
- "With rate-sensitive ETF holders net selling into higher rates, gold prices could then reach $4,440/oz by end-2026 -- materially below our base-case of $4,900."
