Goldman doubles oil disruption outlook to 21 days, lifts Brent target to $110
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 21-day Strait of Hormuz oil export disruption—more than doubling its prior estimate—and sets a WisdomTree Brent crude price target of $110 for March. Institutional investors withdrew $15 billion from emerging Asian markets, driving a 2.1% slump in the MSCI All Country Asia Pacific ex Japan index.
1. Forecast of Prolonged Oil Disruption
Goldman Sachs commodities analysts increased their estimated duration of oil export disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz from 10 to 21 days, reflecting heightened supply risks. The firm raised its WisdomTree Brent crude price target to $110 for March, underscoring expectations of sustained upward pressure on oil prices.
2. Institutional Outflows and Equity Impact
Foreign investors liquidated $15 billion in positions across emerging Asian markets this week, triggering a 2.1% decline in the MSCI All Country Asia Pacific ex Japan index. India and the Philippines led the sell-off with 5% drops each, prompting Goldman to cut 2026 earnings forecasts for the broader regional index by 2%.
3. Emergency Measures and Policy Shifts
South Korea and Taiwan announced emergency market stabilization measures following heavy selling and outflows of $7 billion and $5.4 billion, respectively. Concurrently, U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations were pushed back to September and December, delaying anticipated monetary easing.