Goldman Raises Brent Forecast to $85 and Plans April Staff Cuts
Goldman Sachs has hiked its 2026 oil price forecasts, projecting Brent at $85 a barrel and WTI at $79 based on an assumed six-week Strait of Hormuz flow cut to 5% plus a recovery period. The bank plans April cuts to underperformers, outside its usual annual 1–3% reduction.
1. Revised Oil Price Forecasts
Goldman Sachs now expects 2026 Brent crude to average $85 per barrel, up from $77, and West Texas Intermediate to average $79, compared with prior estimates of $72. The adjustments reflect heightened expectations for sustained supply constraints driven by Middle East disruptions.
2. Hormuz Supply Shock Assumptions
The forecast assumes Strait of Hormuz flows will drop to 5% of normal capacity for six weeks, followed by a one-month recovery, resulting in cumulative supply losses of just over 800 million barrels. Crude output disruptions are projected to rise from about 11 million barrels per day to a peak of 17 million barrels per day.
3. April Staff Reduction Plan
Goldman Sachs will cut underperforming employees in April in a move separate from its annual strategic resource assessment, which typically eliminates 1–3% of positions. The firm has not disclosed the precise number of roles affected.
4. Financial and Operational Impacts
Elevated oil price forecasts could boost commodities trading revenue and reshape client hedging activity, while targeted staff cuts aim to control costs and maintain talent efficiency during volatile markets.