Goldman Raises China Robotaxi Forecast to 14,000 Cars, Sets $30 Target on Pony AI ADRs
Goldman Sachs raised its China robotaxi forecast to 14,000 vehicles by end-2026 and projects 3.1 million units by 2035, a 7% upward revision. Goldman reiterated Buy on Pony AI ADRs with a $30 target, forecasting 100% revenue CAGR and a 3,000-vehicle fleet by 2026.
1. Upgraded China Robotaxi Forecasts
Goldman Sachs raised its China robotaxi fleet forecast to 14,000 vehicles by end-2026, up from 5,000 in 2025, and projects expansion to 3.1 million units by 2035, representing 36% of all ride-sharing vehicles.
2. Pony AI Coverage and Targets
Goldman reiterated a Buy rating on Pony AI ADRs with a $30 12-month price target and initiated coverage on Hong Kong H-shares at HK$234.
3. Revenue and Fleet Growth Outlook
Goldman forecasts Pony AI revenues growing at a 100% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, driven by fleet expansion to 3,000 vehicles by end-2026 across more than 20 Chinese and international cities.
4. Profitability Timeline
Net income for Pony AI is expected to turn positive by 2029, reaching $1.3 billion by 2032 as the company shifts toward fleet-owned models where asset owners bear capital expenditure.