Goldman Sachs Boosts Brent Forecast to $90 as Hormuz Closure Spurs Deficit
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude forecast for Q4 to $90 a barrel, up from $80, citing a near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The bank estimates 14.5 million bpd of Persian Gulf supply losses driving record 11–12 million bpd inventory draws and a 9.6 million bpd deficit.
1. Forecast Revision
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude forecast for Q4 to $90 a barrel from $80, representing a $10 increase and a $30 gain compared with pre-closure outlooks. The revision reflects persistent disruptions in Persian Gulf exports.
2. Supply Disruption
Goldman estimates 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf crude production remain offline due to the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The shortfall has driven global oil inventories to draw at a record pace of 11–12 million bpd in April.
3. Deficit Projection
Given the sustained supply losses, Goldman projects a 9.6 million bpd global oil market deficit this quarter, shifting from a surplus in the same period last year. This imbalance underscores tight market conditions and upward pressure on prices.
4. Risk Outlook
Goldman warns that extreme inventory draws are unsustainable and that prolonged disruptions could require sharper demand losses to rebalance markets. The bank highlights upside risks to crude and refined-product prices and warns of potential product shortages.